We had elections in Germany on Sunday and I went with my partner to vote. I waited on the playground of the school, hoping that my presence there counted as doing my part for democracy. Political discussions have remained at the forefront of many conversations between friends and colleagues, so I thought I’d summarize for those interested in, but not following, German politics.
In short, the results were unsurprising. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming in second and sweeping the East, where I live. The Social Democrats (SPD), coming in third with the worst showing in modern history, are the most-likely coalition partner for the CDU because all parties have unequivocally ruled out working with the AfD. Two parties, the libertarian Free Democrats (FDP) and the new quasi-communist BSW, did not cross the 5% hurdle necessary to sit in the Bundestag (Parliament), but the Greens and Left will be represented, leading to a Bundestag comprised of five parties.
The current political task, while the old Parliament continues the business of governing, is building a governing coalition, which takes as long as it takes. The CDU has announced hopes to have a coalition by mid-April, but the conditions must first be discussed, debated, and agreed upon between the parties, which takes time. From a good English news source, the process is here. As noted in this article, even though a CDU/SPD coalition is the only sensible option, it still has to happen. And we’re not there yet.
The difficulty lies in the fact that the CDU and SPD are very different parties, which is why the SPD didn’t invite the CDU into a coalition after winning the 2021 elections. (That the FDP was there instead, along with the Greens, directly led to the failure of the coalition and the need for new elections.) Conservatives and social democrats tend to stand on opposite sides of moderate, and Germany is no exception. Like other states with social welfare systems, Germany’s right-of-centre is definitely left of American right-of-centre, but that also places the left-of-centre further to the left. As a result, there are significant differences in values and political programs that need to be addressed, and the discussion of what to do with the “debt brake” will most certainly play a role. Yet, a Grand Coalition is the only sensible option because these are two historic parties who aim to preserve democracy. Together, they have a majority, and it’s easier to govern with fewer coalition partners, as the recent failure of the “Traffic Light” SPD/FDP/Greens shows us.
However, the AfD will say that the choice for a Grand Coalition does not reflect the will of the people because the AfD received more votes than the SPD. They will continue to vote against everything that anyone else supports (evidence here, though only in German) because their goal is to destroy regardless of a political campaign to rebuild.
This is why the CDU and SPD need to put aside their differences and rebuild. Understandably, voters leaning towards different parties identified different issues of importance (informative diagrams, though only in German), meaning that the two parties need to attend to a vast swath of concerns in order for the people to feel that politicians have heard them. If they cannot, the AfD will be even stronger by 2029 and democracy will be at risk.
The question of why those from East and West Germany voted so differently (scroll to the middle of the page for a map) is important and relevant. The answer is not to demonize the East as being backward and provincial, but rather to think about the last 30 years of history. A reunified Germany was not an economically equal Germany and we are still feeling the effects of this today. This article addresses the economic, social, and cultural transitions after the fall of the Berlin Wall that, in many ways, dismantles former East Germany and left its people, their skills, and their education behind.
In my analysis, and I am not unique here, this leaves one choice. The choice is to think of the good of the collective rather than the goals of a single party. This is the choice because life needs to improve for all of us in order to protect the democracy and the country that we live in. Germany is not the United States and this gives Germany an opportunity to forge a different path, one more closely tied to the EU, which needs the support of its member states more than ever. Eighty percent of Germans, represented by a historic (since reunification in 1990) high 82.5% of those eligible to vote, voted against the AfD. They voted for democracy and for Europe and for the future.
As a freshly-minted permanent resident, I have chosen to be part of this society and yet have no say in it. So here it is: It is my hope that the CDU and SPD see the necessity of working in a strong partnership to bring this country back together. The alternative would let Germany drift further down a path that threatens to erode what this country claims to stand for.
The people have spoken. And now we need the politicians to do the same.
